# Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Deep Dive Research

- 작성일: 2026-05-22 KST
- 종목: Eli Lilly and Company (LLY, NYSE)
- 섹터: 제약/바이오, GLP-1, 대사질환, 알츠하이머, 종양학
- 기준가: $1,018.87, 최신 공식 Lilly/LSEG 행 기준 2026-05-20 close, minimum 15 minutes delayed
- 2026-05-22 KST 재확인: Lilly historic stock lookup은 May 18-20 행만 제공했고 Nasdaq historical feed는 사용 가능한 데이터를 제공하지 않았다. 2026-05-21 장중 $1,028대 스냅샷은 공식 종가가 아니므로 가격대 판단에는 보조값으로만 사용.

## 1. 핵심 결론

LLY는 "GLP-1 한 제품 사이클"이 아니라 `Mounjaro/Zepbound cash engine -> Foundayo(orforglipron) oral expansion -> retatrutide high-efficacy tier -> tirzepatide indication expansion`으로 이어지는 포트폴리오 사이클이다. 2025년 Mounjaro+Zepbound 합산 매출은 약 $36.5B이고, Q1 2026에는 두 제품만 $12.8B를 만들었다. Q1 2026 전체 매출 $19.8B 중 약 65%가 Mounjaro/Zepbound에서 나온 셈이다.

투자 결론은 `Watch / Evidence-based Accumulate`다. 기준가 $1,018.87에서는 bull case가 열려 있어도 이미 FY27 성장을 상당히 가격에 넣었다. 신규 진입은 $950-$990에서 1차, Q2 2026 GLP-1 합산 매출이 $13.5B 이상이고 gross margin 82% 이상이면 $1,020-$1,060 재돌파에서 2차가 더 합리적이다. $920 아래에서 2주 이상 회복 실패하면 "임상/매출 성장주"가 아니라 "밸류에이션 리스크가 먼저 반영되는 고PER 제약주"로 바뀐다.

## 2. 검증된 사실

### 가격

| 항목 | 값 | 근거 |
|---|---:|---|
| 공식 확인 기준가 | $1,018.87 | Lilly historic stock lookup, 2026-05-20 close, LSEG |
| 2026-05-18 close | $988.09 | Lilly / LSEG |
| 2026-05-19 close | $1,021.41 | Lilly / LSEG |
| 2026-05-20 close | $1,018.87 | Lilly / LSEG |
| 2026-05-22 KST 공식 가격 refresh | 5/21 close 미게시, May 20이 latest official | Lilly / LSEG page rechecked |
| 52주 범위 | $623.78-$1,133.95 | StockAnalysis snapshot, crawled May 2026 |
| LSEG page limitation | minimum 15 minutes delayed | Lilly page note |

### Q1 2026 실적

| 항목 | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | YoY |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Revenue | $19.799B | $12.729B | +56% |
| Cost of sales | $3.577B | $2.225B | +61% |
| R&D | $3.510B | $2.734B | +28% |
| Marketing, selling, admin | $2.934B | $2.468B | +19% |
| Operating income | $8.915B | $3.695B | +141% |
| Net income | $7.396B | $2.759B | +168% |
| Reported diluted EPS | $8.26 | $3.06 | +170% |
| Non-GAAP diluted EPS | $8.55 | $3.34 | +156% |
| Reported gross margin | 81.9% | 82.5% | -0.6pp |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 82.6% | 83.5% | -0.9pp |

### GLP-1 product sales

| Quarter | Mounjaro $B | Zepbound $B | Total $B | 핵심 해석 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---|
| Q4 2023 | 2.206 | 0.176 | 2.382 | Zepbound U.S. obesity launch begins |
| Q1 2024 | 1.807 | 0.517 | 2.324 | supply ramp starts |
| Q2 2024 | 3.091 | 1.243 | 4.334 | first acceleration |
| Q3 2024 | 3.113 | 1.258 | 4.371 | channel/inventory dynamics |
| Q4 2024 | 3.530 | 1.907 | 5.437 | OSA catalyst arrives Dec. 2024 |
| Q1 2025 | 3.842 | 2.312 | 6.154 | GLP-1 reaches 48% of revenue |
| Q2 2025 | 5.199 | 3.381 | 8.580 | LLY becomes GLP-1 volume compounder |
| Q3 2025 | 6.515 | 3.588 | 10.103 | ex-U.S. Mounjaro scale |
| Q4 2025 | 7.409 | 4.261 | 11.670 | FY2025 combined about $36.5B |
| Q1 2026 | 8.700 | 4.100 | 12.800 | two products about 65% of company revenue |

Q4 2025 Mounjaro and Zepbound values are derived from FY2025 total less Q1-Q3 reported values because the Q4 release states FY/YTD values and Q4 product revenue in the selected revenue table.

## 3. 10년 재무

단위는 $B. Revenue/operating income/net income은 Lilly interactive financials; FCF는 CFO less fixed-asset purchases로 계산했다. ROE는 net income / average total equity로 계산한 rough value이며, 2019-2025는 equity base가 낮아 매우 크게 보일 수 있다.

| FY | Revenue | Operating Income | OPM | Net Income | CFO | PP&E Capex | FCF | Equity | Rough ROE |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2016 | 21.22 | 3.46 | 16.3% | 2.74 | 4.85 | 1.04 | 3.81 | 14.01 | 19.5% |
| 2017 | 19.97 | 2.00 | 10.0% | -0.20 | 5.62 | 1.08 | 4.54 | 11.59 | -1.6% |
| 2018 | 21.49 | 3.53 | 16.4% | 3.23 | 5.52 | 1.21 | 4.31 | 9.83 | 30.2% |
| 2019 | 22.32 | 5.03 | 22.5% | 8.32 | 4.84 | 1.03 | 3.81 | 2.61 | 133.8% |
| 2020 | 24.54 | 6.06 | 24.7% | 6.19 | 6.50 | 1.39 | 5.11 | 5.64 | 150.2% |
| 2021 | 28.32 | 5.95 | 21.0% | 5.58 | 7.26 | 1.31 | 5.95 | 8.98 | 76.4% |
| 2022 | 28.54 | 7.13 | 25.0% | 6.24 | 7.59 | 1.85 | 5.74 | 10.65 | 63.6% |
| 2023 | 34.12 | 6.46 | 18.9% | 5.24 | 4.24 | 3.45 | 0.79 | 10.77 | 48.9% |
| 2024 | 45.04 | 12.90 | 28.6% | 10.59 | 8.82 | 5.06 | 3.76 | 14.19 | 84.8% |
| 2025 | 65.18 | 26.30 | 40.4% | 20.64 | 16.81 | 7.84 | 8.97 | 26.54 | 101.4% |

### GLP-1 전후 변곡점

- FY2016-FY2021 revenue CAGR: 약 5.9%.
- FY2021-FY2025 revenue CAGR: 약 23.2%.
- FY2023-FY2025 revenue CAGR: 약 38.2%.
- FY2023 operating margin 18.9%에서 FY2025 40.4%로 확장. 이는 volume mix와 incretin scale의 결합이다.
- FCF는 FY2023-FY2025 동안 capex가 커지며 회계이익보다 느리게 따라왔다. 제조 증설이 끝나기 전까지 FCF yield가 EPS보다 낮게 보이는 구조다.

## 4. FY26-FY28 revenue decomposition model

아래는 회사 가이던스와 공개 실적을 기초로 한 analyst-style model이다. 회사 공식 guidance가 아닌 투자 판단용 모델이며, `Mounjaro+Zepbound+Foundayo+retatrutide optionality`를 GLP-1 hardware로 묶었다.

| Segment | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY28 논리 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| GLP-1 / incretin hardware | 36.5 | 55.5 | 67.0 | 77.0 | Mounjaro/Zepbound scale, Foundayo oral launch, retatrutide optional pre-launch/approval value |
| Oncology | 6.0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 10.0 | Verzenio base, Jaypirca/pirtobrutinib, Retevmo/next-gen KRAS optionality |
| Immunology | 6.0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 8.8 | Taltz, Ebglyss, Omvoh, Olumiant |
| Alzheimer / neuroscience | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 3.0 | Kisunla ramp constrained by infusion, diagnostics, ARIA/reimbursement |
| Diabetes legacy / other medicines | 16.5 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 8.2 | Trulicity decline, legacy insulin mix, Jardiance royalty dynamics |
| Total | 65.2 | 82.5 | 95.0 | 107.0 | FY26 midpoint around public guidance; FY27/FY28 model |
| GLP-1 mix | 56% | 67% | 71% | 72% | concentration risk and operating leverage both rise |

### Round 4 drug sales path / peak-sales envelope

This is a model table, not company guidance or consensus. FY35 is treated as a long-duration peak-sales envelope after policy, cannibalization, and lifecycle effects.

| Drug / sleeve | FY28E | FY30E | FY35 peak-sales envelope | Core assumption | Falsifier |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|
| Mounjaro | $45-$52B | $50-$60B | $45-$60B | Q1 2026 run-rate $34.6B grows through ex-U.S. diabetes and price drag is offset by volume. | Net price -12%+, share loss, supply miss |
| Zepbound | $28-$35B | $35-$45B | $35-$50B | obesity/OSA coverage and KwikPen Bridge access support volume before retatrutide launch. | cash-pay slowdown plus Medicare/class reference price |
| Foundayo / orforglipron | $4-$8B | $12-$20B | $18-$30B | FDA-approved oral GLP-1 expands primary-care/new-to-class patients more than it cannibalizes injections. | new-to-class ratio <50%, high GI discontinuation, low ASP pulls down injections |
| Retatrutide | $0-$2B | $8-$18B | $25-$45B | TRIUMPH-1 -28.3% converts into remaining Phase 3 success and filing. | remaining trials <25%, tolerability or label issue, late-2027+ filing |
| Kisunla / donanemab | $1-$3B | $3-$6B | $5-$10B | Medicare registry coverage plus diagnostic/infusion capacity expansion. | Leqembi access advantage, ARIA/MRI burden, reimbursement friction |
| Oncology / Jaypirca | $9-$11B | $11-$14B | $15-$22B | Verzenio base plus Jaypirca, Retevmo, KRAS/BD optionality. | Verzenio slowdown, Jaypirca label limits, acquired pipeline misses |

## 5. Pipeline facts and investment read-through

| Asset / program | Status as of checked sources | Data point | Investment implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mounjaro | launched T2D, global scale | Q1 2026 $8.7B, +125% YoY | cash engine and ex-U.S. expansion |
| Zepbound | obesity, OSA expansion | Q1 2026 $4.1B, +79% YoY | U.S. obesity/OSA volume and price mix |
| Foundayo / orforglipron | Q1 2026 Lilly release says FDA approved; ATTAIN/ACHIEVE data verified | ATTAIN-1 36mg -12.4% at 72w; ACHIEVE-3 36mg A1C -2.2%, weight -9.2% vs oral sema | oral GLP-1 can expand primary-care and needle-averse pool; lower efficacy vs injectable means segment expansion more important than replacement |
| Retatrutide | Phase 3 obesity/T2D data; not approved | TRIUMPH-1 12mg -28.3% at 80w, >=30% weight loss in 45.3%; TRANSCEND-T2D-1 12mg -16.8% at 40w | high-efficacy tier can defend premium pricing and high-BMI segment |
| Tirzepatide OSA | FDA approved Dec. 20, 2024 | first medication for moderate-to-severe OSA in adults with obesity | shifts Medicare/coverage discussion from vanity weight loss to comorbidity treatment |
| Tirzepatide HFpEF / CKD / MASLD | studied/expanded in cardiometabolic pipeline | FDA/press sources cite HF, kidney and MASH study direction | payer economics improve if hard outcomes reduce hospitalization/cost |
| Kisunla / donanemab | FDA approved July 2, 2024; EU/NICE path uneven | early symptomatic Alzheimer’s, ARIA/APOE risk | not a 2026 core earnings driver, but optional ramp if diagnostics/coverage improve |
| Verzenio / abemaciclib | launched oncology | FY2024 $5.31B; 2025 Q1-Q3 $4.12B | oncology cash-flow stabilizer outside GLP-1 |
| Jaypirca / pirtobrutinib | hematology expansion | Q1 2026 release cites PFS extension with venetoclax regimen in CLL/SLL | pipeline diversification, smaller than GLP-1 |
| KRAS / targeted oncology | next-gen risk bucket | exact asset counts not fully refreshed | no valuation credit above optionality until late-stage data |

### Kisunla / donanemab coverage and ramp model

| Axis | Checked fact | Model read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Medicare | CMS NCD covers traditional-FDA-approved anti-amyloid mAbs under CED/registry for MCI or mild AD dementia with amyloid confirmation. | Coverage is open but conditional; registry participation, amyloid testing, MRI monitoring, and infusion workflow control ramp. |
| Commercial / MA | Plans can use prior authorization, label criteria, amyloid confirmation, and ARIA monitoring requirements. | Commercial helps younger patients but Medicare is the volume gate. |
| Infusion / diagnostics | amyloid PET/CSF, baseline MRI, APOE/ARIA risk management, monthly infusion create a long funnel. | Q1 2026 Kisunla $124M can grow, but FY26 EPS impact remains small. |
| Leqembi comparison | Leqembi opened the market earlier; Kisunla can differentiate on finite treatment/monthly dosing. | Base path uses slow Leqembi-like adoption, with FY30 $3-$6B optionality rather than GLP-1-like ramp. |

## 6. TAM/SAM

| Market | 2030-ish TAM frame | Lilly SAM driver | What must be true |
|---|---:|---|---|
| Obesity / weight management | $100B+ annual class revenue by early 2030s, public analyst estimates vary | Zepbound + Foundayo + retatrutide | supply scale, payer coverage, tolerability, durability |
| Type 2 diabetes | large global market, already reimbursed better than obesity | Mounjaro, orforglipron, retatrutide T2D | A1C and weight advantage vs semaglutide while price headwind manageable |
| OSA/HFpEF/CKD/MASLD comorbidities | not additive 1:1; improves payer value argument | tirzepatide and retatrutide outcome data | hard outcome data and coverage coding |
| Alzheimer’s | large patient population but narrow treatable subgroup | Kisunla | diagnosis capacity, infusion access, ARIA risk management, reimbursement |
| Oncology | mature but durable specialty markets | Verzenio/Jaypirca/Retevmo/KRAS | label expansion and competition management |

## 7. Competitive map

| Company / asset | Latest checked status | Data point | LLY read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novo Ozempic/Wegovy/Rybelsus | 2027 IRA selected drugs; Novo price reset from 2027 | CMS MFP semaglutide anchor, public reports around $274 monthly / $675 list-price reset | price anchor pressure on class economics |
| Novo CagriSema | late-stage/high-dose work | Novo Q1 2026 presentation shows high-dose Phase 3b initiation / US decision path; public frame 20%-23% weight loss | LLY keeps efficacy lead unless high-dose program closes gap |
| Novo Wegovy HD 7.2mg | approved/progressing per Novo Q1 2026 presentation | STEP UP efficacy estimand mean -20.7%, >=25% loss in >30% | narrows injectable efficacy gap below retatrutide |
| Novo oral semaglutide 25mg / Wegovy pill | 2026 decision path in Novo Q1 presentation | Novo claims 16.6% weight loss and >1M users since US launch | orforglipron must win on dosing convenience while defending tolerability and payer economics |
| Amgen MariTide | Phase 2, Phase 3 initiated | 52-week efficacy estimand up to 19.9% obesity without T2D; monthly dosing | dosing interval could compete on adherence, less on peak weight loss |
| Viking VK2735 | Phase 2 oral/subQ | oral Phase 2 up to 12.2% at 13 weeks; subQ path active | strategic M&A optionality but manufacturing/payer scale behind LLY |
| Roche/Carmot CT-388 | GLP-1/GIP clinical asset | early-stage/Phase 1b signals; exact current data not fully refreshed | large pharma sponsor can compete after 2027, not immediate FY26 revenue threat |
| Pfizer danuglipron | discontinued oral GLP-1 program | Pfizer press update April 2025 | removes one oral GLP-1 near-term entrant |

### Same-table Novo vs LLY comparison

| Asset | Efficacy | Discontinuation / tolerability | Price / insurance | Timing | LLY implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zepbound | high-efficacy injectable, OSA label | known class GI risk | commercial/cash-pay plus Bridge only for KwikPen | launched | cash engine |
| Foundayo | ATTAIN-1 -12.4%; ACHIEVE-3 oral sema head-to-head weight/A1C win | ACHIEVE-3 AE discontinuation 8.7%-9.7% vs oral sema 4%-5% | Bridge included; lower ASP risk | FDA-approved / U.S. available in Q1 2026 release | TAM expansion if new-to-class |
| Retatrutide | TRIUMPH-1 -28.3% at 80w | remaining Phase 3 tolerability still key | premium tier must justify payer value | possible late-2026/early-2027 filing path | bull case |
| Novo CagriSema | 20%-23% public frame | titration and dual peptide tolerability | semaglutide price reset helps payer leverage | Q4 2026 US decision path | LLY multiple risk if efficacy gap closes |
| Novo Wegovy HD | Novo Q1: -20.7%, >30% >=25% loss | high-dose tolerability | established Wegovy access | approval/progress in 2026 | pressures Zepbound ceiling |
| Novo oral sema / Wegovy pill | Novo Q1: 16.6% claim, strong uptake | stricter dosing than Foundayo but real-world exposure large | access/self-pay/telehealth | 2026 decisions/H2 rollout | Foundayo must prove convenience converts to durable sales |

## 8. Valuation model

### Current valuation basis

- Basis price: $1,018.87.
- TTM PE public snapshot: about 35-36x depending source/date.
- Forward PE public snapshot: about 26-27x.
- P/S current public snapshot: about 12.5x.
- 2024 P/S peak zone: 19-21x.
- 2025-2026 P/S compression despite price strength reflects revenue/EPS catching up.

Peer valuation refresh from StockAnalysis/Fiscal.ai public ratio pages:

| Ticker | Market cap | TTM revenue | Forward PE | P/S | EV/Sales | Read-through |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| LLY | $869B | $72.3B | 26.7x | 12.0x | 12.5x | about 1.9x peer median forward PE and 2.9x peer median P/S |
| NVO | $206B | $50.6B | 13.2x | 4.1x | 4.5x | cheap due to share/price narrative damage |
| MRK | $277B | $65.8B | 18.6x | 4.2x | 4.9x | Keytruda cliff management |
| PFE | $151B | $63.3B | 9.2x | 2.4x | 3.2x | post-COVID reset / execution gap |
| ABBV | $359B | $62.8B | 13.8x | 5.7x | 6.7x | Humira post-peak diversification |
| AZN | $281B | $60.4B | 17.1x | 4.7x | 5.1x | oncology/CVRM/rare disease premium |

The old "PER 60+" framing is stale if using May 2026 TTM EPS. It remains true only if an investor anchors on older depressed 2024/early-2025 EPS. The present problem is not a 60x trailing EPS alone; it is `~12.5x sales + high GLP-1 concentration + policy/price risk`.

### Multiple target model

| Scenario | FY27 EPS | Multiple | 12m target | 24m target | Condition |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| Bear | $35 | 22x | $770 | $820 | Q2-Q4 GLP-1 misses, price cuts >12%, retatrutide/oral data disappoint |
| Base | $45 | 26x | $1,170 | $1,260 | FY26 guide holds/raises, Q2 GLP-1 >=$13.5B, Foundayo launch clean |
| Bull | $52 | 30x | $1,560 | $1,650 | retatrutide submission by year-end, GLP-1 class expands without payer shock |

### Probability-weighted target

- Bear 25% x $770 = $193
- Base 50% x $1,170 = $585
- Bull 25% x $1,560 = $390
- Probability-weighted 12m value = about $1,168
- Expected return vs $1,018.87 = +14.6% before dividends

This expected return is not enough for indiscriminate chasing because downside to $920 is -9.7% and bear path to $770 is -24.4%. The position must be staged around evidence.

### DCF sanity check

DCF using 10-year public-data assumptions produces a lower equity value than the current market price unless terminal FCF is large or WACC is very low. That means the market is pricing not just visible FCF, but also option value from retatrutide, oral GLP-1 adoption, payer coverage expansion, and post-2030 durability.

Base DCF assumptions:

- WACC 7.9%.
- Terminal growth 3.0%.
- FY2026-FY2035 FCF from $12.8B to $49.0B.
- Net debt bridge: FY2025 net debt about $35.1B.
- Diluted shares: about 895.9M Q1 2026.
- Base DCF value per share: about $720-$780 depending terminal FCF.

Conclusion: multiple-based target is the market's active framework; DCF is the discipline check. If policy/price risk lowers terminal margin, the multiple collapses faster than the revenue line.

## 9. Risk model

| Risk | Trigger | Quant threshold | Expected stock effect | Required action |
|---|---|---:|---|---|
| Realized price pressure | U.S. net price, Novo $675 list price, IRA spillover | GLP-1 net price down >10% YoY while volume growth <35% | margin/multiple compression | no averaging up; wait for gross margin evidence |
| Supply normalization and compounding | shortage resolved, cash-pay channels squeezed | Zepbound cash-pay volume stalls for 2 quarters | lower U.S. growth slope | use Q2/Q3 product sales, not prescription anecdotes |
| Competition | CagriSema, MariTide, VK2735, Roche assets | competitor Phase 3 efficacy within 2pp of Zepbound with better dosing/price | LLY premium narrows | reduce target multiple by 2-4 turns |
| Safety / litigation | gastroparesis, pancreatitis, thyroid warnings, ARIA for donanemab | label restriction or boxed warning expansion | class derating | cut exposure regardless of price support |
| Clinical miss | retatrutide or orforglipron underwhelms | retatrutide <25% or oral retention/tolerability fails | bull case removed | move target from bull/base to base/bear |
| Policy | IRA, MFN, Medicare coverage limits | CMS or White House sets class price reference below modeled net price | revenue model resets | recalc FY27 EPS before adding |
| Valuation | PE/sales multiple too high | price >$1,180 without FY26 guide raise | upside/downside becomes unfavorable | harvest 20-33% of position |

### Policy sensitivity bridge

| Policy path | Monthly net price assumption | Volume | Gross margin | EPS | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base commercial/employer | $450-$650 blended | +35%-45% YoY | 82%-83% | FY27 $43-$47 | 26x |
| CMS GLP-1 Bridge | $245 manufacturer net, $50 copay | +8%-15% eligible Medicare incremental | -80~-140bp | -3%~-6% | -1 turn if reference spillover |
| IRA semaglutide MFP spillover | Novo semaglutide anchor around $274/month / Wegovy package $385.63 | Novo access improves | -100~-180bp | -5%~-9% | -2 turns |
| Trump 2 / MFN-style | stress $200-$300 Medicare-like corridor | Medicare volume positive, commercial umbrella breaks | -250~-450bp | -10%~-18% | -3~-5 turns |
| EU reference pricing | ex-U.S. net 20%-40% below U.S. commercial | ex-U.S. volume strong | -70~-160bp | -2%~-5% | small unless U.S. references EU |

## 10. Investment operating plan

| Price zone | Action | Size rule | Evidence requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| <$850 | evaluate structural damage first | no automatic buy | only if policy/clinical cause is false alarm |
| $850-$920 | watch for failed growth stock derating | max 25% intended position | price must reclaim $920 within 10 trading days |
| $920-$950 | starter possible only after evidence | 25% | Q2 GLP-1 >=$13.2B or gross margin >=82% |
| $950-$990 | best staged-entry zone | 25-40% | no safety/regulatory negative and Mounjaro ex-U.S. keeps growing |
| $990-$1,040 | hold / small add after data | 0-20% | Q2/Q3 guide raise or retatrutide submission timing clarified |
| $1,040-$1,100 | hold | no new large buy | must avoid price-only momentum entry |
| $1,100-$1,180 | trim if evidence not upgraded | sell 15-25% | no add unless FY27 EPS model moves above $48 |
| $1,180-$1,260 | harvest base target | sell 20-35% | hold remainder only if retatrutide FDA filing is visible |
| >$1,300 | bull-only zone | protect gains | require bull EPS >$52 or retatrutide approval path |

## 11. Catalyst calendar

| Period | Catalyst | Upside condition | Downside condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | Foundayo/orforglipron launch data | new-to-class usage >70% and low cannibalization of Zepbound | cannibalization or poor tolerability |
| Q2/Q3 2026 | Q2 earnings | GLP-1 product sales >=$13.5B, gross margin >=82% | GLP-1 < $12.8B or gross margin <80.5% |
| Q3 2026 | Retatrutide follow-up / remaining trial data | efficacy stays >25%, tolerability discontinuation manageable | <25% efficacy or GI discontinuation dominates |
| Q3/Q4 2026 | Novo CagriSema/oral sema decisions | Novo does not close efficacy/price gap | Novo high-dose closes gap and cuts price |
| Q4 2026 | Retatrutide submission path | FDA filing by year-end or clear early-2027 path | delay into late 2027 |
| 2026-2027 | IRA / GLP-1 Bridge / payer coverage | comorbidity coverage expands | class reference pricing suppresses net price |
| 2027 | Foundayo full-year ramp | oral GLP-1 expands TAM rather than replacing injections | pill undercuts pricing without growing class |

## 12. Evidence vs inference separation

### Verified

- Q1 2026 revenue/EPS/product sales from Lilly official release.
- FY2016-FY2025 financial statements from Lilly/LSEG interactive financials.
- 2026-05-20 official close from Lilly/LSEG historical lookup.
- 2026-05-22 KST price refresh: Lilly/LSEG still showed May 20 as latest official row.
- FDA Zepbound OSA approval and FDA Kisunla approval.
- Retatrutide TRANSCEND-T2D-1 and TRIUMPH-1 data from Lilly/PRNewswire/Axios.
- Orforglipron ATTAIN-1 and ACHIEVE-3 data from Lilly releases/PDF.
- CMS IRA/GLP-1 Bridge, CMS anti-amyloid NCD, Novo Q1 2026 presentation, and Supreme Court IRA appeal status from CMS/Novo/AP.

### Inference / model

- FY2026-FY2028 segment decomposition.
- FY2028/FY2030/FY2035 drug-level sales path and peak-sales envelope.
- FY27 EPS/multiple target.
- DCF values.
- Scenario probabilities.
- Policy EPS/multiple sensitivity.
- Price ladder behavior zones.
- Pipeline distribution chart counts.
- Peer valuation table based on public ratio pages, not paid terminal.

## 13. Terms

- GLP-1: glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor pathway. Appetite, glucose and satiety effects.
- GIP: glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide receptor pathway.
- Glucagon agonism: energy expenditure/liver/metabolic pathway; retatrutide uses GLP-1/GIP/glucagon triple activity.
- Tirzepatide: molecule sold as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity/OSA.
- Orforglipron / Foundayo: Lilly oral small-molecule GLP-1, reported FDA-approved in Q1 2026 Lilly release.
- Retatrutide: investigational triple agonist, not approved as of checked sources.
- ARIA: amyloid-related imaging abnormalities, key Alzheimer antibody safety risk.
- Net price: list price after rebates/discounts; more important than headline list price for pharma economics.