# Source Log - LLY Deep Dive 2026-05-22

## 로컬 기준 파일

- `C:\Users\robotext\boardgame\docs\aisetup\codex\templates\deep_research_stock_TEMPLATE.md`
  - 사용: 20섹션 구조, Chart.js 10개 이상, 하단 preflight, 3라운드 자기비판.
- `C:\Users\robotext\.codex\docs\market\nintendo_deep_dive_20260521\index.html`
  - 확인 결과: 102,723 chars, 20 sections, 15 chart canvases/calls, `maintainAspectRatio` 0회. Round 4 LLY target itself is 17 canvases/calls.
  - 재사용 패턴: hero decision grid, sticky TOC, chart cards, 하단 Evidence/Limitations, review/audit block.
- `C:\Users\robotext\.codex\docs\market\nintendo_deep_dive_20260521\review_note.md`
  - 재사용 패턴: gap-first review, score caps, density ratio, ambiguous phrase grep.
- `C:\Users\robotext\.codex\docs\market\jerrynews_lly_retatrutide_20260521\index.html`
  - 사용: Retatrutide 긴급 대시보드 구조와 가격 트리거 일부.
- `C:\Users\robotext\.codex\docs\market\jerrynews_20260521_lly_retatrutide_response.md`
  - 사용: 2026-05-21 retatrutide TRIUMPH-1, 장중 가격 스냅샷, 매크로 충돌 메모.
- `C:\Users\robotext\.codex\docs\market\healthcare_sector_deep_dive_20260522\index.html`
  - 사용: GLP-1/Alzheimer/Novo/CMS policy를 같은 healthcare 섹터 프레임으로 묶는 패턴.
- `C:\Users\robotext\.codex\docs\market\btmd_deep_dive_20260522\index.html`
  - 사용: 규제·보험·가격 민감도를 action matrix로 압축하는 패턴.
- `C:\Users\robotext\.codex\memories\artifact_quality_standard_20260518.md`
  - 사용: exemplar comparison, gap-first review, score cap.
- `C:\Users\robotext\.codex\docs\artifact-quality\README.md`
  - 사용: reuse-first, decision-surface-first 기준.
- `C:\Users\robotext\.codex\docs\artifact-quality\reference_manifest.json`
  - 사용: artifact score cap 확인.

## 공식 / A등급 또는 준공식 근거

### Eli Lilly official IR

- Eli Lilly Q1 2026 earnings release, 2026-04-30
  - URL: https://lilly.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-raises-full
  - 사용:
    - Q1 2026 revenue $19.799B, +56% YoY.
    - Q1 2026 operating income $8.915B.
    - Q1 2026 reported EPS $8.26, non-GAAP EPS $8.55.
    - Q1 2026 Mounjaro revenue $8.7B, +125% YoY.
    - Q1 2026 Zepbound revenue $4.1B, +79% YoY.
    - Foundayo/orforglipron FDA approval item, ACHIEVE-4, retatrutide TRANSCEND-T2D-1, pirtobrutinib/Jaypirca, Retevmo updates.
- Eli Lilly Q4/FY 2025 earnings release, 2026-02-04
  - URL: https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-fourth-quarter-2025-financial-results-and-provides
  - 사용:
    - FY2025 revenue $65.179B, +45%.
    - FY2025 operating income $26.302B, net income $20.640B, reported diluted EPS $22.95.
    - Q4 2025 revenue $19.292B.
    - FY2025 gross margin non-GAAP $54.615B.
    - Mounjaro FY2024 $11.540B, FY2025 derived from Q1-Q4 $22.965B.
    - Zepbound FY2024 $4.926B, FY2025 derived from Q1-Q4 $13.542B.
    - 2026 guidance baseline discussed with public web sources.
- Eli Lilly Q3 2025 earnings release, 2025-10-30
  - URL: https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-third-quarter-2025-financial-results-highlights-rd
  - 사용:
    - Q3 2025 Mounjaro $6.515B, Zepbound $3.588B, Verzenio $1.470B.
    - 2025 YTD Mounjaro $15.556B, Zepbound $9.281B.
- Eli Lilly Q2 2025 earnings release, 2025-08-07
  - URL: https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-second-quarter-2025-financial-results-and-raises
  - 사용:
    - Q2 2025 Mounjaro $5.199B, Zepbound $3.381B, Verzenio $1.489B.
    - Donanemab CHMP/FDA label update items in Q2 2025 release.
- Eli Lilly Q1 2025 earnings release, 2025-05-01
  - URL: https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and
  - 사용:
    - Q1 2025 Mounjaro $3.842B, Zepbound $2.312B.
- Eli Lilly FY2024/Q4 2024 earnings release, 2025-02-06
  - URL: https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-full-q4-2024-financial-results-and-provides-2025
  - 사용:
    - Q4 2024 and FY2024 product sales.
    - FY2024 Mounjaro $11.540B, Zepbound $4.926B, Verzenio $5.307B.
    - FY2024 total revenue $45.043B.
- Eli Lilly annual reports page
  - URL: https://investor.lilly.com/financial-information/annual-reports
  - 사용: 2016-2025 annual report availability 확인.
- Eli Lilly interactive financials - income statement
  - URL: https://investor.lilly.com/financial-information/fundamentals/income-statement
  - 사용:
    - FY2016-FY2025 revenue, gross profit, R&D, operating income, net income, margins, diluted EPS, normalized EBITDA.
    - Source: LSEG shown on page.
- Eli Lilly interactive financials - cash flow
  - URL: https://investor.lilly.com/financial-information/fundamentals/cash-flow
  - 사용:
    - FY2016-FY2025 operating cash flow, fixed asset purchases, capex, dividends, repurchases.
    - FCF는 CFO less fixed-asset purchases로 계산.
- Eli Lilly interactive financials - balance sheet
  - URL: https://investor.lilly.com/financial-information/fundamentals/balance-sheet
  - 사용:
    - FY2016-FY2025 equity, debt, cash, inventory, net debt, employee count.
- Eli Lilly historic stock lookup
  - URL: https://lilly.gcs-web.com/stock-information/historic-stock-lookup
  - 사용:
    - Week of 2026-05-18: May 18 close $988.09, May 19 close $1,021.41, May 20 close $1,018.87.
    - 2026-05-22 KST 재확인 결과, Lilly/LSEG 페이지는 May 20까지를 latest official row로 제공.
    - Minimum 15 minutes delayed, source LSEG.

### Clinical / regulatory

- Eli Lilly Retatrutide TRANSCEND-T2D-1 release, 2026-03-19
  - URL: https://lilly.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-triple-agonist-retatrutide-demonstrated-significant
  - 사용:
    - A1C -1.7% to -2.0%; 12mg weight -16.8% at 40 weeks in type 2 diabetes.
    - Phase 3 studies include obesity/overweight, T2D, knee osteoarthritis, OSA, chronic low back pain, cardiovascular/renal outcomes, MASLD.
- Eli Lilly/PRNewswire Retatrutide TRIUMPH-1 release, 2026-05-21
  - URL: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lillys-triple-agonist-retatrutide-delivered-powerful-weight-loss-in-pivotal-phase-3-obesity-trial-302778859.html
  - 사용:
    - TRIUMPH-1 12mg -28.3% at 80 weeks, 45.3% achieved >=30% weight loss; 104-week extension -30.3%.
    - 로컬 `jerrynews_20260521_lly_retatrutide_response.md`에도 같은 근거 기록.
- Axios retatrutide coverage, 2026-05-21
  - URL: https://www.axios.com/2026/05/21/experimental-lilly-drug-surgery-level-weight-loss
  - 사용:
    - Retatrutide phase 3 약 28% weight loss, FDA submission as early as end of year if remaining trials succeed.
- Eli Lilly ATTAIN-1 orforglipron results, 2025-09-16
  - URL: https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-oral-glp-1-orforglipron-demonstrated-meaningful-weight
  - 사용:
    - Highest dose 36mg: -12.4% at 72 weeks, 59.6% >=10%, 39.6% >=15%; GI adverse events common.
- Eli Lilly ACHIEVE-3 orforglipron head-to-head oral semaglutide PDF
  - URL: https://investor.lilly.com/node/53961/pdf
  - 사용:
    - Orforglipron 36mg A1C -2.2%, weight -9.2% at 52 weeks vs oral semaglutide 14mg weight -5.3%.
- FDA Zepbound OSA approval, 2024-12-20
  - URL: https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-medication-obstructive-sleep-apnea
  - 사용:
    - Zepbound approved for moderate-to-severe OSA in adults with obesity.
- FDA Kisunla approval / FDA page
  - URL: https://www.fda.gov/drugs/news-events-human-drugs/fda-approves-treatment-adults-alzheimers-disease
  - 사용:
    - Kisunla/donanemab approved for Alzheimer’s disease; ARIA/APOE risk.
- CMS anti-amyloid mAb NCD 200.3
  - URL: https://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/view/ncd.aspx?bc=0&keyword=amyloi&keywordtype=starts&ncdid=375&ncdver=1
  - 사용:
    - Traditional-FDA-approved anti-amyloid monoclonal antibodies are covered under CED/registry for MCI or mild AD dementia with amyloid confirmation.
    - Kisunla/donanemab ramp table: registry, diagnostic, MRI/ARIA and infusion bottleneck.
- Alzheimer's Association Kisunla approval note
  - URL: https://www.alz.org/news/2024/fda-approve-kisunla-donanemab-alzheimers-treatment
  - 사용:
    - FDA approval date July 2, 2024 and early symptomatic Alzheimer’s population.
- EMA Kisunla refusal Q&A, 2025
  - URL: https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/smop-initial/questions-answers-refusal-marketing-authorisation-kisunla-donanemab_en.pdf
  - 사용:
    - EU/NICE-like reimbursement/regulatory friction risk. Exact country reimbursement updates were not fully rechecked.

### Policy / pricing / market data

- CMS Medicare GLP-1 Bridge
  - URL: https://www.cms.gov/priorities/innovation/innovation-models/medicare-glp-1-bridge
  - 사용:
    - GLP-1 Bridge July 1, 2026-Dec. 31, 2027.
    - Eligible products: Foundayo, Wegovy, Zepbound KwikPen.
    - $245 manufacturer net price, $50 beneficiary copay; Bridge operates outside normal Part D payment flow.
- CMS IPAY 2027 negotiated price fact sheet
  - URL: https://www.cms.gov/files/document/fact-sheet-negotiated-prices-ipay-2027.pdf
  - 사용:
    - Ozempic/Rybelsus/Wegovy MFP package examples and semaglutide class price anchor.
    - P3 policy table monthly net price and spillover sensitivity.
- CMS third cycle Medicare negotiation release
  - URL: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/cms-announces-selection-drugs-third-cycle-medicare-drug-price-negotiation-program-including-first
  - 사용:
    - 2026 negotiation cycle, 2028 effective prices.
- KFF IRA negotiation explainer
  - URL: https://www.kff.org/medicare/faqs-about-the-inflation-reductions-acts-medicare-drug-price-negotiation-program
  - 사용:
    - 2027 list includes GLP-1 diabetes/obesity drugs and implementation timing.
- AP News Supreme Court IRA appeals, 2026-05-18
  - URL: https://apnews.com/article/1b67dff5ab8c13865e2b33860b0978ce
  - 사용:
    - Supreme Court rejected manufacturer appeals; IRA negotiation program remains active as of May 2026.
- StockAnalysis LLY page, crawled 2026-05
  - URL: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lly/
  - 사용:
    - 52-week range $623.78-$1,133.95, PE/forward PE/target snapshot, market cap and revenue TTM caveat.
    - Current page timestamp in search result was May 18, so official Lilly/LSEG close is preferred for baseline.
- Macrotrends LLY P/S historical page
  - URL: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/LLY/LLY/price-sales
  - 사용:
    - P/S historical anchor: 2026-05-15 12.50; 2024 peaks above 19-20x; 2023 and 2025 quarter-end values.
- StockAnalysis LLY forecast page
  - URL: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lly/forecast/
  - 사용:
    - Public analyst target context around $1,210; not used as primary target.
- StockAnalysis/Fiscal.ai peer ratio pages
  - URLs:
    - https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lly/financials/ratios/
    - https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvo/statistics/
    - https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mrk/financials/ratios/
    - https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pfe/financials/ratios/
    - https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/abbv/
    - https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/azn/
  - 사용:
    - P6 peer valuation refresh: market cap, TTM revenue, forward PE, P/S, EV/Sales.
    - LLY premium vs peer median: forward PE 약 1.9x, P/S 약 2.9x.

### Competition

- Novo Nordisk Q1 2026 investor presentation
  - URL: https://www.novonordisk.com/content/dam/nncorp/global/en/investors/pdfs/financial-results/2026/Q1-2026-investor-presentation.pdf
  - 사용:
    - CagriSema high-dose Phase 3b initiation/US decision timeline; oral semaglutide 25mg decision timing.
    - Wegovy pill early launch/users, Wegovy HD STEP UP 20.7% mean weight loss, Novo volume/access claims.
- Axios Novo/Lilly obesity competition, 2026-02-23
  - URL: https://www.axios.com/2026/02/23/ozempic-novo-nordisk-eli-lilly-zepbound
  - 사용:
    - CagriSema fell short vs Zepbound benchmark; Novo NYSE shares fell 16% on report day.
- Axios Novo list price cut, 2026-02-24
  - URL: https://www.axios.com/2026/02/24/novo-nordisk-obesity-drug-price-cut
  - 사용:
    - Wegovy/Ozempic/Rybelsus list price cut to $675/month from Jan. 1, 2027.
- Amgen MariTide Phase 2 release, 2025-06-23
  - URL: https://www.amgen.com/newsroom/press-releases/2025/06/results-from-amgens-phase-2-obesity-study-of-monthly-maritide-presented-at-the-american-diabetes-85th-scientific-sessions
  - 사용:
    - MariTide 52-week Phase 2 efficacy estimand 16.3%-19.9% in obesity without T2D; monthly or less frequent dosing.
- Viking Therapeutics VK2735 Phase 2 oral dosing release, 2026-05-12
  - URL: https://ir.vikingtherapeutics.com/2026-05-12-Viking-Therapeutics-Presents-Data-from-its-13-Week-Phase-2-VENTURE-Oral-Dosing-Trial-of-VK2735-at-European-Congress-on-Obesity-ECO-2026
  - 사용:
    - Oral VK2735 Phase 2 13-week data and safety/tolerability context.
- Pfizer danuglipron update, 2025-04-14
  - URL: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-provides-update-oral-glp-1-receptor-agonist
  - 사용:
    - Danuglipron development discontinuation / obesity pipeline reset.

## Round 4 모델 산출물

- P1: 2026-05-22 KST 기준 Lilly/LSEG official lookup을 재확인했고, 최신 official close는 May 20 $1,018.87로 유지. Expected return, technical levels, entry/harvest zones are recalculated from this official basis.
- P2: FY28/FY30/FY35 drug-level sales path and peak-sales envelope added. This is a model, not guidance.
- P3: IRA/Bridge/MFN/EU reference pricing translated into monthly net price, volume, gross margin, EPS and multiple stress table.
- P4: Novo CagriSema, Wegovy HD, oral semaglutide and Lilly assets compared in one efficacy/tolerability/price/coverage/timing table.
- P5: Kisunla/donanemab coverage, infusion/diagnostic bottleneck and Leqembi-like ramp path added.
- P6: Peer valuation refreshed from public ratio pages and browser render QA is recorded in review note.
- Browser QA: Playwright Chromium opened the local `file://` URL; CDN Chart.js/font resources were blocked by sandbox network policy, so `chart_fallback.js` rendered all 17 canvases nonblank. Screenshot: `qa_round4_screenshot.png`.
- Local fallback asset: `chart_fallback.js` is a small offline canvas renderer used only when `window.Chart` is unavailable.

## 비검증 / 제한

- 2026-05-21 정규장 종가는 official/LSEG page에서 이 실행 중 확인하지 못했다. 본문 기준가는 official Lilly/LSEG 2026-05-20 close $1,018.87이고, 2026-05-21 장중 $1,028대는 로컬/공개 스냅샷으로만 별도 표시했다.
- 10년 PE/PBR/EV-Sales 밴드는 공식 일별 terminal data가 아니라 StockAnalysis/Macrotrends/회사 financials 기반의 anchor estimate다.
- Peer valuation은 public ratio pages로 갱신했지만 paid Bloomberg/FactSet terminal은 사용하지 못했다.
- Pipeline distribution chart는 "LLY 투자 판단에 중요한 high-relevance subset"이다. 전체 공식 pipeline asset count로 주장하지 않는다.
- Humira/Lipitor analog는 산업 사례의 구조 비교이며, 통제된 event study가 아니다.